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Forgetting the basic issue

You just have to give it to Malacañang to keep the public pre-occupied while Gloria Arroyo continues to scramble to hold on to power.

Yesterday, Press Secretary Ignacio Bunye said “There will be elections in 2007 but we can be sure that President Arroyo will serve her full term unless the people say otherwise in a constitutionally-sanctioned process.”

The next sentence in his press statement is interesting: “The Palace ends the issue on the ‘No-election’ in 2007 following the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines and former President Fidel Ramos’ call to the Arroyo government to pursue the elections next year.

Malacañang can surely end the issue because it was they who started it through Arroyo’s puppet Consultative Commission.

At almost the same time that Bunye was announcing Malacañang’s “permission” to hold the 2007 elections, the House committee on constitutional amendments approved the motion of Parañaque Rep. Roilo Golez to “abhor, renounce and reject” the no-election-in-2007 proposal.

Golez said: “No-el should be considered dead and buried.”

The coordination between Malacañang and Joe de Venecia’s House of Representatives is amazing.

The second part of the first sentence in Bunye’s statement is intriguing: “We can be sure that President Arroyo will serve her full term unless the people say otherwise in a constitutionally-sanctioned process.”

This is a departure from earlier statements emanating from Malacañang invoking Arroyo’s “mandate” up to 2010. Is Arroyo saying that she is amenable to a snap election and step down if she loses?

We are reminded of former President Marcos pressured by the United States to call for a snap election which he announced late in 1985. We all know what happened in the February 1986 snap elections. Marcos won by Comelec count amidst reports of massive cheating. Two weeks later, Marcos fled the country at the height of the first People Power.

A presidential adviser told us we are “hallucinating” if we think Arroyo will make the same mistake as Marcos.

We know. We know that Arroyo has no other recourse but to hold on to power forever because once she is out of Malacañang she will be vulnerable to plunder and other charges that will put her, her husband Mike and her associates in jail.

We are not about to applaud Malacañang for allowing the 2007 elections to proceed. In the first place, why was its cancellation ever raised? It’s not lost on us that it was contemplated as a bribe to the lawmakers so that they’ll agree to charter change that is meant to expunge the crimes committed by Arroyo in the 2004 election.

In Tagalog, we say, “Baka sakaling makalusot.”

The 2007 elections could even serve Arroyo’s interest in the short term as it will keep the opposition busy. This early surveys commissioned by opposition private groups show that personalities identified with the opposition are favored by the people for the Senate. Among those in the top of list of next batch of senators are Loren Legarda, Ping Lacson, Tito Sotto, Gregorio Honasan, Alan Peter Cayetano, Francis Escudero, Ralph Recto and Francis Pangilinan.

It’s notable that Sen. Edgardo Angara, once in the opposition and now supportive of Arroyo, is at the bottom.

In the public’s pre-occupation with the 2007 elections, we might forget the basic issue of Arroyo’s illegitimate presidency. She cheated in the 2004 election and she has no right to be in Malacañang even for minute.

Published inMalaya

58 Comments

  1. juanito dela cruz juanito dela cruz

    I pity her now. She has been hostaged by AFP and PNP officials. I saw in the papers this morning that she gave PNP P1B. I think this is the ransom. Its our money. Good prioritizing. I really pity her, couples of weeks, maybe months, she would be abandoned by her husband, her son, her brother in law, and by Mike Defender. Everybody close to her are gone into hiding, except maybe for Dato and Luli. Maybe even Pacquiao will distance away from her. And the INK and the Church. Who will she turn to? Bush or Clinton? Where will she go? Will she be allowed to go on asylum? Only time will tell…

  2. Diego K. Guerrero Diego K. Guerrero

    The charter change and 2007 election are squid tactics to hide her cheating and thieving regime. Gloria Arroyo and her aides plundered the nation’s treasury. The Marcos’ recovered ill-gotten wealth in billions of pesos intended for agrarian reform was diverted to her own personal interest. We should remember that the additional 2% E-VAT is not part of GMA economic plan but to cover-up fiscal deficits of her own making.

    Gloria Arroyo is obsessed with grabbing credibility at the expense of others for public relations (PR) purposes. The flood victims in Central Luzon provinces are crying for help while she is singing “Tagumpay ng Pinoy” in a program tribute to boxing hero Manny Pacquiao. GMA can be compared to ancient Roman Emperor Nero who played his violin during the burning of Rome. Nero blamed the Christians. She blamed the media and the opposition as scapegoat for her failures. Gloria Arroyo must go!

  3. Ellen,
    The fact that GMA gave in and gave up the NO-el scenario
    leaves an opening to oust her from power peacefully without resorting to our discredit military to set our house in order. This is a very risky move. It also shows that public opinion can still influence public policy in our society.

    The people should vote overwhelmingly for the opposition so that there will be enough votes in both houses of Congress to impeach and convict GMA. On top of that they must be vigilant and make sure their votes are counted correctly. This is an opening, it is up to our citizens to respond properly.

  4. Luzviminda Luzviminda

    GMA wants to hold-on to power because of the immunity given to a president. But once she is kicked out of malacañang, tapos na rin ang maliligayang araw niya at ng kanyang mga alagad, kasama na rin ang mga corrupt na mga heneral. They should be tried by a ‘people’s court’ and sentenced to guillotine or firing squad. Kaya lang baka hindi na payagan pang buhayin ng taong bayan si GMA. Kaya naman ang ‘LAKAS ng NERBIYOS’ ng mga HENERAL kaya may utos na ‘shoot- to kill’ sa mga pumugang sundalo na hindi naman mga kriminal. Ang mga sundalong pumuga ay kumakalaban lamang sa bulok na pamamalakad ng ‘PEKENG PANGULO’. Takot na takot ang mga heneral na mawala ang malalaking kita nila sa kanilang mga korupsyon at mga bribes.
    It needs only one ‘spark of an incident’ to make the Filipinos free again from an abusive leader. This time…we will make it right!!!

  5. Tomas Tinio Tomas Tinio

    “We are not about to applaud Malacañang for allowing the 2007 elections to proceed. In the first place, why was its cancellation ever raised? It’s not lost on us that it was contemplated as a bribe to the lawmakers so that they’ll agree to charter change that is meant to expunge the crimes committed by Arroyo in the 2004 election”

    I totally agree. It is not for the palace, nor for the few power-brokers to decide whether to have the 2007 elections or not in the first place. “Allowing the 2007 elections to proceed” to me connotes permission being given by the palace. This is nothing but unadulterated high-grade manure.

    Article II Section 1. The Philippines is a democratic and republican State. Sovereignty resides in the people and all government authority emanates from them. It is a long-established creed of nations like the Philippines that the right to vote is not a privilege afforded by a “sovereign” and “almighty” state but a God-given right. It is not up to the state or a powerful minority to suspend or allow elections when it suits their interests. So to me, this administration scores no points for “allowing the 2007 elections to proceed.”

  6. a de brux a de brux

    Ellen,

    Juanito says ‘I pity her (presumably Gloria Macapal) now…’

    Pity Gloria? Blimey! What about pitying the nation for a change?

    Hang the damn power grabber, I say! No pity for the wicked. Even God sends the wicked to hell…

    Frankly, I wouldn’t give a s**t what happens to her. Think of the impoverished, hunger-stricken, starving people while she, the most crooked of all crooks allows her slob of a husband and her son to get fatter and fatter on people’s money!

    Pity her?

    Isn’t it about time we get our priorities right?

  7. goldenlion goldenlion

    Ha, ha, ha, ha!! She ran out of words to save her face. And I guess she is running out of her mind now. I have said this many times……..”the time has come to reap the fruits of stealing, lying and cheating”. Si Gloria ay tulad na ng isang ulol na aso, hindi alam kung ano ang gagawin, kung saan pupunta, kung kakagat o kakahol. BAd karma is now working on her. Bunyeta!! Sinong maysabi sa iyong tatapusin ni Sinungaling ang kanyang term? The past 1 year was a hell to us……you 5 more years??? Baliw kayo!!!! Oras na!! Kilos Bayan!!

  8. jinx jinx

    01 February 2006

    People, we really dont learn, remember when GMA declared during the Rizal day Celebration in December 2002 that she will not run for presidency???what happened she did run and won the election (Did She???????????)how many time did she change her minds??? (countless)who will still believe her, except those who are enjoying the power right now. Sa Tagalog “NAPASO SYA E” she thought all the while the CBCP is behind her all the time.

    So I say again, we should call for a snap election, and lets see if she will still win the election done in a HOPE way.

    Salamat po and more power.

    Mabuhay ang Pilipinas

    Jinx

  9. Spartan Spartan

    Watching Gloria in tv during her “photo ops” in Laur, Nueva Ecija surrounded by “the ELITE” of the AFP (the Special Action Forces), although “anger and high-blood pressure” begets me everytime I see her “thick face” in tv…I can’t help it but laugh out loud at the “scene”…she’s really a “trying hard” on every aspect of “leadership” over the “civilian dominion” that she had stolen…how much more over the “military assets” that she’s “clinging into”, like a “fly on a piece of dung”.
    Echoing the comment of a de brux…”pity are the street children, the prostitutes at the street corners…and all JUAN and JUANA dela CRUZes that are “sweating blood and guts” in trying to survive the everyday living..and would now be “whipped some more” by GLORIA’s E-VAT.

  10. pugak pugak

    in the memory of Capt Rene Jarque (PA),

    to wit:

    AFP Code of Ethics, Article III Section 1.1:

    ‘We believe in honor as crowning value as it is more precious than life itself. It is the hallmark of military conduct which implies our clear conciousness of personal dignity and worth. We associate it with good reputation and is immortal, sacred part of our character, the violation of which should bring about shame in us and the dignity to impose on ourselves the requisite restitution…To us honor means truthfulness, sincerity, honesty, uprightness, credibility and avoidance of deception ..We shall not lie, cheat, steal, violate moral and ethical codes nor tolerate of violations of the same.’

    http://www.pcij.org/blog/wp-docs/Jarque.pdf

    a message from a volunteer for a “NEW AFP”

  11. goldenlion goldenlion

    Pasalamat si Cardinal Sin wala na siya dito sa mundo, kung nabubuhay pa siya, marami din siyang pagbabayaran sa tao. Guluhin ba naman ang ating bansa para lamang mai-upo ang isang sinungaling, mandaraya at magnanakaw? I wish former Pres. cory Aquino will join the united forces against GMA. Palibhasa may kasalanan din siya kaya tayo nasadlak sa ganitong situwasyon. Hindi ko malilimutan noong bago nila agawan ng puwesto si Erap, nagsalita si Tita Cory at tinawag niya si Donya sinungaling, mandaraya at magnanakaw ng Madam President. Aba!!! palibhasa pareho silang naging presidente na hindi naman ibinoto ng tao. Tapos ngayon, paninindigan pa niya ng kailangan constitutional process ang pagpapalit ng presidente? Ano ka ba Tita Cory? As if naman hindi extra-constitutional ang pag-upo mo noong 1986. Tigil na ang mga kaipokrituhan!!! Itong si Susan Roces, kailangan maging aktibo na ulit sa mga protesta. Ngayon na ang tamang panahon para maalis natin ang demonyo sa Palasyo. Kilos na!!!

  12. Ellen,

    I hope you and your fellow journalists will not allow
    the Malacanang spin masters to dilute the issues in the
    2007 elections if it is held at all. It will be a LITMUS
    TEST to determine if the Parliamentary system will work at all in the Philippines. In such a system it is essential that the people should vote on the issues and not on the
    personalities of the politicians.

    The election should be put up as a referendum on the GMA
    administration with particular reference to the impeachment
    issue. Right now 65% of the people want GMA out. This should be translated into a majority of seats in Congress
    so that there will be enough votes to impeach GMA after the
    election.

    That is exactly how a parliamentary system is supposed to work. Let us assume GMA is the Prime Minister and it was discovered she cheated to get elected to Parliament. If she
    refuses to resign, then Parliament is dissolved. Elections are called. The people then vote on the issue of retaining or kicking her out of office. If the opposition wins the
    majority of seats in Parliament then GMA is out. Otherwise she retains the position of Prime Minister. That is why it
    requires a mature electorate to operate a parliamentary
    system. This is also the primary reason why it has failed in most overseas areas where it was exported. The reason is
    the people in developing countries like our own, are not mature enough and vote on personalities not on issues.

    So I hope you and your fellow journalists keep focused on the all important issue of the the need to get enough votes in the incoming Congress to impeach GMA. Let us see if our
    citizens know how to vote on the issues. The 65% who want
    GMA out should be enough to elect the majority of opposition
    party members in both houses of Congress. If the result turn out otherwise and the Lakas-Kampi coalition still wins
    the majority of seats, that means that the electorate failed to vote on the issues and as usual voted on personalities. It will be a confirmation,however, that we cannot operate a parliamentary system of government.

  13. Tomas Tinio, Amb. Cruz, Seems to me that any change, whether NOEL or Chacha is a threat to the President’s term. No wonder that her allies in Congress have resoundingly rejected Noel. As for Chacha, even that is hanging by the skin of JDV’s teeth. Chacha is just the political noise needed to occupy Congress while the Palace figures out how to kill Impeachment for good. Once that’s done, I predict JDV will be nominated Ambassador to France. We’ll have our election in 2007 and GMA will keep the 1987 Constitution at least til 2010.

    I’m almost tempted to SUPPORT Noel and Chacha. That’s how absurd the situation is. That’s how diabolical the plan is.

  14. romeo romeo

    eleksyon sa 2007? he he he.. muling hahawakan na naman ng comelec? aba! yari na naman kay abalos. heto nga lang at nagkakawalaan na ang bilyung-bilyong pera. panuhol hak hak hak..bilihan na naman at pambayad sa mga operator.. pamilyar na pamilyar si nundak dyan.

  15. Dean Bacobo,

    That is why I preface my comments “… if the elections are held at all.” The credibility of the GMA administration is so low that you can never accept at face value what they are saying. If it goes through at all, the door is open again for massive cheating unless the Comelec is revamped first. I am sure the spin masters in Malacanang have also
    seen the danger to the regime if the opposition wins the majority of seats in the coming elections. That will make
    impeachment possible which they will of course try to defeat
    at all cost.

  16. Spartan Spartan

    jinx,

    I was also “airing” your opinion about GLORIA’s “two-tongued” character (walang inilayo sa mga bayawak, ahas, at iba pang reptilian animals)…like what you mentioned about her saying at first that she would not be running for the presidency, but then 2004 came…and not only did she ran, but she “really made sure” that she would win..ika nga ng mga alipores nya “she’s a hands-on president”..hands-on talaga pati sa pandaraya, akalain mong siya pa mismo ang tumatawag dun kay GARCI…next, she started “mumbbling” about a “STRONG REPUBLIC”…then she was talking about “FEDERALISM”…what in GOD’s name she really want to do? Because of her continued lying, even her is now “confused” on what she said the previous time and what she has to say next time she face the people(media).

  17. PS

    Noel means the status quo with the administration in control of Congress. An election unless manipulated, can
    upset that status quo and return a majority of opposition members. Hence, the purpose of Noel I believe was to make sure the opposition will not get the majority of seats
    needed to impeach until at least 2010 when GMA term ends.
    Things will be moot and academic by then since that is the
    farthest point she can hold office, which of course is not
    what the people want.

    I believe the people should call the bluff of Malacanang.
    You need a trigger event to push the people over the brink. That happened in 1983 vs. FM when Ninoy was assassinated. Who knows, the trigger event to oust GMA may be another manipulated election or plebiscite.

  18. pugak pugak

    Meron pa rin palang naniniwala sa eleksyon sa Pilipinas???

    Eh yung 1987 Constitution nga, ni-ratify ng sambayanang Pilipino pero hindi naman talaga nila gusto ito.
    Ang masakit pa nito, LEGITIMIZATION pa ng CORY-KAMAGANAK Inc. REGIME noong 1987 to 1992 na isa ring walang kakwenta-kwentang pahina sa kasaysayan ng bansang Pilipinas.

    ELECTORAL SYSTEM IN THE PHILIPPINES IS A CORRUPT SYSTEM!!!

    Siguradong walang magagawa ang mga “mamamahayag” sa mga immature electorate na willing naman magpa-corrupt!

    SA TUWING MAY ELEKSYON SA PILIPINAS AY PARANG ISANG “FIESTA” , PALAGING BUMABAHA NG PERA!naaglilipana ang mga “patay gutom” at “oportunista”.
    🙂
    🙂
    Pagkakataon na ni Lito Lapid, Bong Revilla, Jinggoy at Kiko Pangilinan na maging lider ng Parlyamento

  19. jinx jinx

    01 February 2006

    AS i said, time and time again, people should now face the music, its either we stick it out with the GMA or do we want change??? IF people are for changes, then we should speak in one voice, we should ask for a snap election, we choose who we want to lead us to the future. In parliamentary form of govt, a simple question, do we want our leaders???? to choose for ourselves who will lead us??? I dont think so, AMb. Cruz your right, we should not allow these people to manipulate the election process, or we suffer again. And this time I suggest that we study carefully the candidates, para hindi na tayo magsisi sa huli.

    Jinx

  20. Tiago Tiago

    Dean Bocobo;
    I agree with Amb. Cruz on the pretext that the election is credible. Politics is always played by numbers. I also believe that we should constantly work for the education of the electorate. Journalists, like Ellen, will have their work cut out for them as i don’t think we have matured politically. But before all of this takes place, we should petition for the resignation of all the Comelec members. New Election with old commisioners just doesn’t ring a fair bell.

  21. “Yesterday, Press Secretary Ignacio Bunye said “There will be elections in 2007 but we can be sure that President Arroyo will serve her full term unless the people say otherwise in a constitutionally-sanctioned process.”

    tama ang prediction ko three weeks ago.. where she will back down fron NO-EL, but will insist on staying till 2010.

    This is a departure from earlier statements emanating from Malacañang invoking Arroyo’s “mandate” up to 2010. Is Arroyo saying that she is amenable to a snap election and step down if she loses?

    Or she is saying na she will step down if impeached, which she will not allow to happen because her admin and her COMELEC will make sure her allies will “win” the elections para hindi siya ma-impeach.

    Amb. Cruz:

    The fact that GMA gave in and gave up the NO-el scenario
    leaves an opening to oust her from power peacefully without resorting to our discredit military to set our house in order.

    I’m not really impressed with Arroyo backing out of NO-El. Nung december ko pa na-predict yung pag-atras nila sa NO-El. That was a crazy (and unnecessary) proposal to begin with, just like their proposal to raise the number of votes required to impeach a president to 2/3s of the House Members (akala ko ba magpa-parliamentary na tayo?), or allowing only “responsible” speech, “responsible” press, and “responsible” free assembly in the new constitution.

    Eto pa ang sinabi ni Ellen:

    We are not about to applaud Malacañang for allowing the 2007 elections to proceed. In the first place, why was its cancellation ever raised?

    Here’s why. Eto ang post ko dati about this No-El ek ek, after jarius bondoc “complained” re No El:

    As for me naman, I believe “trial balloon” yang “No El” proposal na yan. I don’t believe it’s serious, and it is meant to make some of the Cha-cha appointees of Arroyo “less stooge-like”.

    Meaning, they get to “dissent” and show their “independence” from Mrs. Arroyo, and the administration and it’s allies will eventually “back down” from their “NO EL” proposal. I believe this is what will happen because nobody (and certainly not the public) is dumb enough to accept that “No El” ek ek ni GMA at Jose Abueva.

    At since yan ang isa sa mga main complaints ng opposition, by removing that “no el” proposal (which they were never seriously considering in the first place), sasabihin ng administration na “O yan, may election na sa 2007. O timigil na kayo.”

    But like I said before:

    Beware, beware of the lying cheater/thief and her stooges presenting themselves as “reformers.”

    And even if they eventually withdraw their NO-El proposal (because of strong negative clammor from the opposition), it is already too late because most Filipinos will see this Cha Cha move by Arroyo/JDV/FVR as nothing more than fake reforms meant to distract the public from Gloriagate.

    As for me, I’m not for changing the Constitution. Ever since panahon pa ni Ramos at Erap.

    But EVEN IF I were for it, I want somebody who is credible and with integrity to lead the reforms. The last person I would trust to make changes in the Constitution is Mrs. Arroyo and her appointed stooges like Jarius Bondoc, Alex Magno and Carmen Pedrosa of PHILSTAR. Changing the constitution is not a small matter, and I sense we have another Marcos type situation in our hands with his 1973 Constitution.

    Rizalist:

    I’m almost tempted to SUPPORT Noel…

    Hah. I’m against No-El, but I never made a big deal out of it because I kinda secretly like having Noel as an issue against arroyo. It is the gift that keeps on giving, ika nga.

    The longer Noel stays an issue, the more it exposes the arroyo admin for what they really are–corrupt and power-hungry fools.

    It was a stupid enough proposal to begin with (and to think that they can get away with it), but the fact that it took this long before they decided to pull the plug on this stinker is equally amazing.

  22. New Election with old commisioners just doesn’t ring a fair bell.

    half-correct, tiago. I’ll add this. credible elections will never happen as long as the arroyo admin and all those responsible for GLORIAGATE remains intact (that includes lower ranking COMELEC officials and military officials who did the grunt work for dagdag-bawas.)

  23. Jay Cynikho Jay Cynikho

    ellen

    I know you know ang daming nambobola sa
    iyo. but i trust you completely to
    distinguish the horns from wings.
    dominus vobiscum. asala molaicum.
    (never mind the spelling)

  24. goldenlion goldenlion

    Kaya ako ay nagtataka John, bakit may mga naniniwala pa na pwede tayong mag-eleksyon? Ikaw din Ellen, gusto mo snap election. Wlang masama duon, kaso kung itong kasalukuyang COMELEC ang magha-handle ay huwag na lang. Hnaggang ngayon hindi sila umaamin na may nangyaring dayaan nuong 2004. Kahit hindi ipakita ang ebidensiya, mararamdaman ng lahat ang naging dayaan. Alisin muna lahat ng COMELEC personnel, alisin din muna si Gloria saka mga bayarang Generals. sige, payag akong mag-election. Pero habang ang mandaraya, ang sinungaling at ang magnanakaw ay andyan sa Malacanang, kasama pa ang big Fafa niya ay huwag na lang. Walang mapagkakatiwalian sa kanila, lahat ng cabinet members at staff ni Gloria ay wala ng credibilidad. Alis na Dyan!!

  25. marc marc

    sabihin natin na blessing ito sa pilipinas itong nangyayaring ito sa atin.. bakit kamo? kasi nakikita natin kung gaano kadali i manipula ang ang electoral system natin to the fullest… nakikita natin ngayon kung paano nag-iiipon-ipon ang mga reptilya. doble dila. mga oportunista sa military, lahat ng trapo. at ‘pag dumating na ang oras na umabot na sa sukdulan ang galit ng mamamayang pilipino, madali nang tukuyin kung sino ang paluluhurin sa plaza, pila-pila sila at …. kukurutin sa batok.. tapos nun.. makikita mo nakapwesto na uli sa gobyerno! hak hak hak pilipino . .kawawang pilipino.. kelan ka matu-tuto.

    magmula pa nang edsa-edsang yan.. nababoy na ang pilipinas, taliwas sa dapat na inaasahan.

  26. The best that could happen would be for Arroyo and Noli de castro to resign now. No violence. Snap elections to be held with Drilon as officer-in-charge of the country.

    Without Gloria telling the Comelec to cheat and with a vigilant public, we can have a credible election.

    I know that is impossible. Arroyo and De Castro will not resign.

    Next to the best thing would be a coup. It could be bloody given that Arroyo would not give up power easily. If the coup fails, that would perpetuate lies, cheating, thievery. That’s the end for the country.

    If the coup succeeds, a revolutionary government could be declared that would supervise an election that would us back to a normal democracy.

    I don’t know the prospect of a coup at this time. I’m not in with the plotters.

    If the above two scenarios are not going to happen, I could settle for a snap election. I’m hoping that with a vigilant public, massive cheating by Arroyo with the cooperation of Comelec, could trigger public protests that hopefully would ignite a political upheaval.

    I know these are all wishful thinking. But I find the 2007 elections too long. And we go back to the basic issue of Gloria Arroyo imposing herself on the Filipino people without a mandate.

  27. a de brux a de brux

    Ellen,

    I agree with you that 2007 elections are way too long a wait.

    But a coup is not in the offing either while the US keeps hankering that they will not recognize a government resulting from a coup.

    Our AFP officers and men are still afraid of the US. Until they shed that fear, a military led coup d’etat is remote but if it is a civilian coup d’etat (why not?), the US can’t do anything against the civilians unless they invade the Philippines again.

    As for the 2007 elections, there’s no guarantee that Gloria won’t do another Garci. As Ambassador Cruz said, time to call Malacanang’s bluff.

    Best thing is a SNAP election NOW!

  28. Kaya lang, I really doubt if Arroyo will call for a snap election. As one of her advisers told us, “You are hallucinating.”

    The US will support a winner. If the coup succeeds, they would have no otehr choice but to work with it. What’s EDSA I and II anyway?

    Have you noticed how Arroyo has been doing the rounds of camps and areas just to give the impression that she is in control? They must know something to make them nervous.

  29. But a coup is not in the offing either while the US keeps hankering that they will not recognize a government resulting from a coup.

    Our AFP officers and men are still afraid of the US. Until they shed that fear, a military led coup d’etat is remote but if it is a civilian coup d’etat (why not?), the US can’t do anything against the civilians unless they invade the Philippines again.

    I’m not worried about the US at this point. What are they gonna do, side with an unpopular and illegitimate ruler?

    I agree with Ellen. The US will support a winner. If the coup succeeds, they would have no other choice but to work with it.

  30. Ellen, A de Brux,
    Who will stage the coup? As I had stated earlier, the coup may not be done by a united military. If as is most likely,
    one faction of the military stages it, that could be a short lived administration as other factions in the military
    jumps into the picture and stage their own counter coup. We could have a revolving chair government like in Latin America.

    EDSA I and II are not military led coups but civilian instigated. The military started EDSA I and failed. They were bailed out by the people not the other way around.
    Moreover, a joker in a military coup is will they willingly
    give up power and hold elections immediately or will they stay on a la Fidel Castro and hold power forever? Castro has been in power now for fifty five years.

    What will be the fall back position if a military junta
    refuses to give up power ? A Liberia or Uganda style civil war? A coup may work again if it is instigated by the mass of the population a la EDSA I and II. But it may pose
    grave problems if it is strictly a military show.

  31. Diego K. Guerrero Diego K. Guerrero

    The Filipino people have lost trust and faith in the ability of the Arroyo government to improve their lives for the better due to too much politicking and massive corruption. Malacanang Palace and political allies are focused on how Gloria Arroyo to stay in power beyond 2010. The military political role as protector of the people and the state is not for selfish motives but for survival of the nation.

    The 1986 EDSA Uprising and 2001 EDSA Dos were military mutinies supported by the people. Military power was utilized to carry out its function as true defender of the people and the state. Gloria Arroyo can be ousted with the participation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), the people and oppositions coming from different political spectrum. This may be a painful alternative that needs patience and sacrifice to achieve goals and aspiration of better Philippines. A civilian revolutionary government should be established to carry out ALL necessary reforms/over-haul in our culture, the judiciary, legislature, executive, constitutional bodies and military/police establishment. Arroyo loyalists may sabotage or derail any gain of the revolution. Transition period will be the most critical part of the event. It may take time before regular election be held. We should learn from the mistakes of the Cory Aquino Revolutionary Government. There will be no credible election under the corrupt Arroyo regime.

  32. Diego,

    You correctly pointed out the problem in a military coup.It is the so-called “transition period” between the successful coup and the holding of elections.The Cubanos are still waiting for the elections promised them by Fidel Castro
    way back in 1959.The Chilenos waited for 19 years and
    at a cost of thousands of disaparecidos, before they got rid of Pinochet. They are still trying in court now
    Pinochet and his cohorts. So what do you do if the military takes over and does not hold free elections?

    It may not be easy to convince our people that turning over
    the government to the military will solve our country’s problems. The military is also a failed institution. Its main purpose is to eradicate the enemies of the state like the NPA, the MILF, the MNLF and the Abu Sayyaf. It has failed to do that.This is not surprising since it is also
    corrupt.The morale of our troops must be very low as they
    see the likes of Carlos Garcia and other ranking officers
    pocket the money intended for their combat equipment.

    The lower down you go in our social structure the lower will be the prestige of the military.The victims of
    human rights violation and atrocities are the poor.If you conduct a survey of the peasants in our barrios and ask them whom they fear more, the NPA and the military, the
    chances are they will say they fear the military. So there
    will be a problem of rallying the people to support a military government.

  33. bfronquillo bfronquillo

    It will take courage to stage a bloody coup. Therefore GMA will not be brought down by a coup. Is this a non-sequitor? Malacanang believes it is not and I am tempted to believe them.

    They claim Gloria has the support of the military and the police. Last night the police chased and beat-up the rallyists who were denouncing the VAT. And Gen. Tolentino said he will shoot magdalo escapees if he sees them in a military camp, no questions asked.

    And yet they tell us that the soldiers are saying they are against Arroyo and what their officers have done and are doing for her. But these are mere words that have not been translated into action. ACTION NEEDS COURAGE. Or are they as SEGURISTA as Ramos and are waiting for the people to act first. Or did they cower in fright when Mike Defensor said that they are ready to “fight fire with fire?”

    Gloria on the other hand has demonstrated courage under fire. Who will face-up to her? COURAGE vs. COURAGE! Well, I am not betting on the military nor the police. Who then?

  34. Spartan Spartan

    Speaking of fighting “fire with fire”…or “courage with courage”…GLORIA ang her “hordes” are a step ahead on everything or anything that “ANYONE or ANYBODY” could throw at THEM. Saw her in tv (again I almost threw my remote control to my tv set) last night, all of us watched her with this “EVANGELICAL GROUP” (or whatever they want to call themselves) who are “uttering” their words of “bigtime” SUPPORT to GLORIA…”even thanking GOD for giving us GMA as OUR PRESIDENT”…hhmmmmmmmm, this is her “Evil Empire’s” answer to the CBCP’s “position”…she’s “fighting religious belief with religious belief”….”sect against sect”….in fact, this WOMAN is willing to let “CEBUANOs fight CEBUANOs”…”TAGALOGs fight TAGALOGs”…”the AFP against the AFP”…”FILIPINOS against FILIPINOS”, just to stay in POWER….now, we’re really in “deep sh*!#t”, the “DEVIL HIMSELF” is in disguise, staying in the PALACE by the RIVER.

  35. Spartan Spartan

    Bishop Lagdameo commented..”..we should give HER(Gloria) E-VAT time, let’s evaluate…” he’s a fine example of a medieval clergy..back in those days, most clergymen are the so-called “scholars”…they are “learning thru experience”…so in order to check if a “poison is indeed a deadly poison”, they would test if first…so what this BISHOP is saying to us is, “we should take a bite of the poisoned apple first, before we say that it’s indeed a poison”.

  36. pugak pugak

    bfronquillo,

    you said: “I am not betting on the military nor the police. Who then?”

    IPAGPASADIYOS MO NA LANG!

    ha ha ha lolz!

  37. Who will stage the coup?

    edsa 1986 and dos were “coups” too, yes, albeit peaceful ones with a civilian component.

    As I had stated earlier, the coup may not be done by a united military.

    if i recall correctly, the military aint that united either during edsa 1986 and dos.

    EDSA I and II are not military led coups but civilian instigated. The military started EDSA I and failed. They were bailed out by the people not the other way around.

    the military should play a support role and not the primary role for people power to work. i don’t care if military initiate another edsa (like in 1986) o back the civilian component later (like in 2001)

    Moreover, a joker in a military coup is will they willingly
    give up power and hold elections immediately or will they stay on a la Fidel Castro and hold power forever? Castro has been in power now for fifty five years.

    that’s a possibility. like a military takeover in edsa 1986 was a possibility too if enrile and ramos succeeded.

    A coup may work again if it is instigated by the mass of the population a la EDSA I and II.

    that’s almost impossible to do with the “no permit, no rally” rule and CPR currently in effect. remember, we had 2 huge (and peaceful) anti-arroyo rallies before GMA declared that she’s going to “chase the bullies away from the schoolyard” with the strict implementation of “No permit, no rally” and CPR, which virtually bans any anti-Arroyo rallies in the streets of Edsa, Mediola and Makati via violent police dispersal before the rally grows bigger.

    She has also banned mayor binay from issuing rally permits to anti-arroyo demonstrations too, if you’ll recall.

    But it may pose grave problems if it is strictly a military show.

    nobody’s claiming that it should be a strictly military show.

    You correctly pointed out the problem in a military coup.It is the so-called “transition period” between the successful coup and the holding of elections.The Cubanos are still waiting for the elections promised them by Fidel Castro
    way back in 1959.The Chilenos waited for 19 years and
    at a cost of thousands of disaparecidos, before they got rid of Pinochet. They are still trying in court now
    Pinochet and his cohorts. So what do you do if the military takes over and does not hold free elections?

    It may not be easy to convince our people that turning over
    the government to the military will solve our country’s problems. The military is also a failed institution.

    nobody wants the military to take over and form a military junta. what i want personally is for the military and the police to protect us civilians from arroyo’s own CPR and other violent dispersal tactics.

    for a longer answer to some of your concerns, here’s an old post of mine

    http://politicaljunkie.blogspot.com/2006/01/answering-mlq3.html

    I know this ouster attempt vs. the fake president is not going to be easy, and may end up being bloody. even mike Arroyo and Chavit were prepared for bloodshed “if necessary” during edsa dos, so hindi ka pa rin makakasiguro kahit na may civilian component ang coup na magiging peaceful ang pagalis ni arroyo.

    what if arroyo orders her military to mow down the anti-Arroyo civilians peacefully assembling in the streets?

    nasa kay GMA na rin yan kung magiging peaceful ito o hindi, pero mukhang kapit tuko siya sa pwesto eh, unlike erap.

    They claim Gloria has the support of the military and the police. Last night the police chased and beat-up the rallyists who were denouncing the VAT.

    hah. CPR is still definitely in effect.

  38. a de brux a de brux

    Rizalist,

    If Gloria nominates JdV to the post in Paris, I can guarantee you that the nomination is bound to be very, very thorny which will eventually have an adverse effect on the way the Quai d’Orsay may ‘accept’ the nomination.

    A JdV posting here could “nuire” (cause relations to sour) Franco-Philippine relations because there are Pinoy groups and politically conscious French-Pinoy citizens of good standing in France who will not take an ambassador in tradpol JdV sitting down. I can guarantee you that there will be a strong lobby in France to make sure that authorities realize the error of having a corrupt Philippine tradpol on its soil.

    Anyway, if JdV wants to be appointed ambassador to Paris, he had better start learning to speak French – he cannot even consider the post if he does not speak French.

  39. Ellen,

    Don”t you think it will be more appropriate to transfer the dialogue on the ways to get a snap election to this site?
    It is more appropriate in this topic than under the topic of Ituloy ang Laban ni Faeldon.

  40. a de brux a de brux

    Ellen,

    I think Ambassador Cruz’ idea is good.

  41. Diego K. Guerrero Diego K. Guerrero

    Amb. H.C. Cruz,

    There’s no military leader in the Armed Forces of Philippines (AFP) who has the charisma and leadership like Libya’s Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi as an alternative leader. Military dictatorship will fail without peoples’ support. I believe that the civilian component in the “Revolutionary Government” will not allow total military take-over. Most likely a compromise power sharing in the transition period. Of course, there will be power struggle during the critical transition period. . A massive demonstration is not enough to topple the discredited Arroyo regime. Military involvement is an important factor for quick victory or prevents bloodshed. We know that there are bad eggs and scalawags in the military. Likewise, there are patriotic and principled officers who can carry out mission and vision for the national survival. Trust is no longer an issue. The civilian and military leaderships must work together to accomplish their vision for better Philippines. Gloria Arroyo must go!

    Constitutional and legal means won’t work under the present set-up. GMA can invoke presidential immunity from suit. She has influence in courts and controls the House of Representatives. She bribed congressmen to kill the impeachment complaint last year. Status quo will only benefit Gloria Arroyo and her thieving allies. The other option will be thru diplomacy or outside help. Anti-Arroyo lobby/pressure group may request the U.S. Congress and U.S. allies (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, U.K. and Australia) to cut-off its military and financial aid to Gloria Arroyo’s illegitimate government. It may not be easy to convince them to support their cause. Economic embargo/sanctions will be fatal to bankrupt regime.

  42. As suggested by Amb. Cruz and seconded by Anna, I lifted teh vibrant discussion on coup/snap elections from “Tuloy ang laban the Faeldon. But I transferred it to today’s post: “Not exactly against coups”. It’s related. Let’s continue this very interesting discussion.

    Thanks.

  43. pinoy-in-Japan pinoy-in-Japan

    Where’s morality? Where’s integrity? What’s happening to our country? Is there still a room for selfless interest? This Arroyo government is really B*LLSH*T. They twist credible statements to their favor. This makes me sad as Filipino citizen who is now seeking a decent living abroad. Are there no more credible pro-Arroyo administration allies? I just hate to see most of their faces on TV (especially Bunye’s and Defensor’s). I’m puzzled why Arroyo can’t fire them. All my co-pinoys here also want them out, including the ‘trying-hard’ Gloria.

  44. Urgie F. of New York City Urgie F. of New York City

    To Ellen:
    I really believe that Gloria Arroyo never resign. Ang kapal ng apog nyan. To hold snap election, first totally reform the Comelec from the top to buttom. If the same faces, there will no creditible election.

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