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The spectre of failure of elections

In the 10-hour oral arguments at the Supreme Court last Wednesday on the motion of the Concerned Citizens Movement to stop the Smartmatic-Total Information Management agreement with the Commission on Election for the automation of the 2010 elections, counsel Harry Roque anchored his argument on the provision of the Republic Act 8436 which requires pilot testing of the system before it is implemented.

RA 8436 authorized the Comelec “to use an automated election system or systems in the same election in different provinces, whether paper-based or a direct recording electronic election system as it may deem appropriate and practical for the process of voting, counting of votes and canvassing/consolidation and transmittal of results of electoral exercises:

“Provided, that for the regular national and local election, which shall be held immediately after effectivity of this Act, the AES shall be used in at least two highly urbanized cities and two provinces each in Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao, to be chosen by the Commission: Provided, further, x x x. In succeeding regular national or local elections, the AES shall be implemented nationwide.”

Assistant Solicitor General Tomas Larraga and Smartmatic counsel Victor Lazatin argued that the approval of Congress of the P11.3 billion budget for the 2010 automated elections in effect waived the requirement of a pilot test. From their questions, it could be gleaned that Chief Justice Reynato Puno and Justices Antonio Carpio and Teresita de Castro did not agree with the Larraga and Lazatin.

Carpio elicited from Larraga the admission that pilot testing is for the purpose of knowing if and how the system works because “we cannot afford failure of elections.”

When Larraga kept on insisting of the reliability of Smartmatic machines proven by other smaller- in- scale elections in other countries, Carpio asked him: “Supposing you assembled an airplane using a Pratt Whitney engine. Would you and your family fly in it without having it pilot-tested?” Larraga admitted, he would not risk it.

Carpio cited the history of misdelivery of ballot boxes. Since in the 2010 elections, the computers would be precinct-specific, what if the computers for Davao would be brought in Danao, Cebu? Can you imagine the nightmare if many of those computers end up in precincts different from where they were programmed to be?, Carpio asked.

Larraga said Smartmatic election system was successful in the elections in Venezuela and Curacao. Justice Leonardo Quisumbing asked, “How do you define ‘successful”? Because it favored the incumbent?”

Quisumbing read a news report in the Miami Herald that, in the Venezuela referendum on whether to lift the term limits of a president, “When the vote finally came, exit polls by New York’s Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates showed (Hugo) Chávez had been defeated 59 to 41 percent; however, when official tallies were announced, the numbers flipped to 58-42 in favor of Chávez. Venezuela’s electoral council briefly posted machine-by-machine tallies on the Internet but removed them as

mathematicians from MIT, Harvard and other universities began questioning suspicious patterns in the results.”

Carpio said the Venezuela experience can’t be used in the Philipppine setting because it was a referendum and there was only one question. As to the Curacao experience, Carpio asked Larraga if he knew the size of the Carribean country. The assistant Solgen said he didn’t know.

Well, Carpio said, “the biggest barangay in Makati is bigger than Curacao.” So it was just like a barangay elections.

Compare that to the more than 40 million who would be voting in 80,000 precincts spread out in more than 7,000 islands in the country. If the system conks out on election day, it would indeed be a nightmare.

Carpio said it is important that the system is tested and proven reliable because what is at stake “is the survival of our democracy.”

Published inMalaya

27 Comments

  1. Phil Cruz Phil Cruz

    Gads. This whole scenario is plausible. It’s scary to imagine what will follow once those machines go conk, deliveries to wrong precincts, or discoveries of wholesale dagdag-bawas. And no paper trails.

    No wonder Gloria is so confident. Even asking in her SONA that we all support the Comelec.

    This Melo fellow. Just what is the character of this man?

  2. Phil Cruz Phil Cruz

    The law says that “the AES shall be used in at least two highly urbanized cities and two provinces each in Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao”.

    Note that it says “at least”. Meaning no less than “two”. Meaning they can go more than “two”? Meaning they can go immediately the whole hog, the whole country?

    However, the law further states “In succeeding regular national or local elections, the AES shall be implemented nationwide.” The intent of the law therefore is not to go full automation on the first try. But to start small. Pilot testing muna.

    But the Comelec wants to go full blast. Contrary to the intent of the law.

    What is the Comelec’s agenda therefore? Failure of elections?

  3. saxnviolins saxnviolins

    The comment of Justice Leonardo Quisumbing is based on this news item:

    http://www.wheresthepaper.org/MiamiHerald060327ForgetDubaiWorryAboutSmartmaticInstead.htm

    That, however, finds a rebuttal in this blog:

    http://www.bradblog.com/?p=3682

    which states that:

    Learn about the company Rove has hired to conduct and report fraudulent exit poll results – which will stand in sharp contrast to all other exit polls:

    The GOP has employed a firm called Penn, Schoen, & Berland to skew exit poll results in the past in order to achieve their own political ends. They are on Rove’s payroll:

    Oops. Mukhang palpak ang googling ng justice.

    I am for a lively debate on the automation. But arguments for or against must be factually correct.

  4. worried worried

    so, that’s the plan! i’ve been thinking hard about how the nor gonzales attempt to “establish” a transitional government fits into the election scenario. it didnt make sense since the constitution already establishes the method of transition after an election. the only way it seemed to apply is if there was a revolution of some sort. or. a failure of elections. neither of which is contemplated by the constitution. hmmm

    a failure of elections may be the only way to justify a transitional government.

  5. Balweg Balweg

    Pagpumalpak ang utomated machine na yan e dapat didikdikin natin ang betlog ni Kumisyoner Melo? Masyado silang adelintado na maging high tech ang gagawin nilang dadag-dami upang makapangdaya muli not Once, Twice but Thrice?

    Nakaya nilang pondohan ng bilyones yan…of course kaya din nilang bayaran yong hackers upang sabutahihin ang halalan ng makapagdeklara ng failure of election?

    Inumpisahan nila ang kagaguhan at pangloloko sa mga Pinoy e pasensiya sila na maging malikot ang ating kukote sa mga posibleng mangyari di po ba mga Igan?

  6. jocjoc jocjoc

    Substitution comes to mind, dahil diyan magaling ang daya team nina Arroyo. Kung may testing sa mga machines, ay dapat gawin iyon from cradle to grave, then be wary of when and where there could be a substitution of machine and/or results.

    Sa pakiwari ko, they only insisted on this computerized election because of billion pesos they can milk out of it (the tongpats), not necessarily because of the accuracy and integrity of the results of the elections. The actual intention might be a failure of election which Worried (No. 4) rightly so observed.

  7. Rose Rose

    I will not be surprised if as 2010 comes near..hindi maging automated ang election kaya there will be no election…or maging palpak it will be declared null and void..gloria forever..didn’t she call for transparency at the beginning of her term..transparent naman siya..hindi ba? kitang kita natin ang kasinungalingan niya at ang pagsisinungaling niya..how transparent can she get?

  8. taga-ilog taga-ilog

    Sa aking pananaw, ngayon natin masusubok kung gaano kawalang-hiya ang administrasyon na ito….pag pumalpak ang eleksiyon!

    At ngayon din natin masusubok kung gaano katapang o katanga ang mga Pinoy!!!

    MATITIRA ANG MATIBAY…..pag nagkataon!
    Let loose the bulls……!

  9. “This Melo fellow. Just what is the character of this man?”

    – Read the Melo Commission Report. And know why she was chosen by Imp to head the COMELEC. Nagpagamit siya doon, di ba?

    – Ito ang matagal ko nang sinasabi. Kaya ako kontrang kontra sa kontra ConAss ay dahil wala naman talaga roon ang tunay na laban. Panghira o pangligaw lang ‘yon. Narito sa probable failure of elections ang tunay na problema.

    Ngayong dadalawa na lang ang pagpipilian natin: palpak na automation o bulok na manual elections, makaiiwas pa ba tayo sa matinding kaguluhan?

  10. taga-ilog taga-ilog

    taxj,

    hayaan na lang natin na mangyari kung ano mang kahayupan ang nais ng malakanyang. Wala naman tayong maggagawa dahil hawak sa bayag ni pandak ang mga militar at nabayaran na ang kongreso. Dami sana ang diskontento pero di naman magkaisa ang oposisiyon….LAHAT GUSTO SILA NAMAN ANG MAGHARI! Puro suwapang!!!!!!! Bakit di sila magusap-usap at isa na lang tatakbo pero bawat isa ay hahawak ng maselan na puesto sa pamahalaan upang magbago ang sistema natin?
    Ginawa ito noong panahon ni Magsaysay.

  11. Larraga said in the worst case scenario, Comelec can revert to manual. But it would really be a nightmare.

  12. taga-ilog taga-ilog

    Sayang ang laki ng gastos ng Pilipinas sa pagkikita nila Pandak at Barack! Ang sasabihin lang pala ni Barack; “Ang ganda mo, day.”
    Sagot naman ni pandak; “Ang guapo mo, dong.”
    Tapos nagtawa magkasabay “HA HA HA HA HA”

    Milyon ang halaga nang kanilang bolahan.

  13. taga-ilog, Huli ka na sa balita. Matagal nang subok kung gaano kawalanghiya ang administrasiyon. Matagal na ring subok kung gaano katapang at katanga ang mga Pinoy. Hindi ba ito ang mismong dahilan kung bakit tayo nagkakaganito?

  14. bonz bonz

    Wow, i just learned that government election automation is a complete mess because in our area in Mindanao, it takes no effect….dagdag-bawas still existed. When can i see a real election in this country. Are we hopeless, what shall we do now? we are living in the society seem to be democratic but in the real sense indirectly a cover-up to hide a mask of tyranny starting from local up the national government? Anything good in the Philippines?

  15. bananas bananas

    “At the Iglesia ni Cristo-Rizal Memorial gathering, only a few of the major presidential timbers were invited. As they were introduced, Binay got much more applause than Villar. And since this was a microcosm of the masa sentiment, we should ask how Villar could be number one in the SWS and Ibon surveys, especially since Jinggoy Estrada got even more applause than Binay, and Erap brought the house down.” –tribune, herman tiu laurel

    yong obserbasyon ni laurel ay tumpak na yong inc selebrasyon ay “microcosm of the masa sentiment.” bakit? dahil yong mga dumalo sa inc selebrasyon dito sa manila ayon sa kaibigan kong inc ay mga representatives sa ibat ibang inc church lokal na galing sa ibat ibang probinsya sa kapuluan at kasama na doon ang representatives na taga metro manila na galing sa ibat ibang inc church lokal.

    itong sws ni mahar mangahas at ibon surveys ay nabayaran na naman ni money villar at pandak na may kasamang baboy. manipulated na naman itong surveys.

    diba si villar din ang senate president noong impeachment ni pres. joseph estrada at kasama si villar sa coup d’tat ni pandak kay erap. subok na ni pandak na maasahan nya si villar. sinabihan din si enrile ng malakanyang na go easy sya sa c-5 inbestigasyon sa senado.

    http://www.tribune.net.ph/commentary/20090731com6.html
    =====

    “An interesting report also came in that a close Malacañang friend had approached Senate President Johnny Ponce Enrile to go easy on Sen. Manny Villar on the C-5 committee of the whole investigations. He was even offered a slot on the Villar ticket which Enrile promptly rejected. Senator Enrile considered this a strong indication that GMA was backing Villar, considering that the emissary was one of the closest to GMA and First Gentleman Mike Arroyo.” — tribune, amb. maceda

    http://www.tribune.net.ph/20090730/commentary/20090730com4.html

    kung may eleksyon man ay siguradong dadayain ni pandak at baboy na lumabas na panalo si villar.

  16. Balweg Balweg

    diba si villar din ang senate president noong impeachment ni pres. joseph estrada at kasama si villar sa coup d’tat ni pandak kay erap?

    Maliwanag pa sa sikat ng araw Igan Bananas…wala akong simpatya in terms na kung si Villar ang maupo sa Malacanang, bakit po? Kasi ganito yon, he is playing politics at ang nakakatakot nito e yong mga trapo at balimbing e sila uli ang mauupo sa gobyerno de bobo na iiwan ni gloria at pagnagkataon yong mga general problems na nakapwesto na like Reyes et. al. e sila pa din yan?

    Kaya NO to Villar sa 2010…ok pa magnegosyo na lang siya tutal bilyonaryo na yang mamang yan. Pero ang pamunuan ang bansa e wala akong trust sapagka’t hinudas niya si Pres. Erap so tuloy tayo ngayon ang naperwisyo.

    Nasaan yong logic niya na “sipag at tiyaga”, saan? Mang-agaw ng kapangyarihan upang sila e magsiyaman ng husto at magkamal ng milyones.

    In laymans words Igan, sinipa nila si Erap upang maisulong nila yaong vested interest nila na maka-paglobby sa gobyerno de bobo na kanilang pekeng sinuportahan.

    Yan ang tunay na larawan ng tunay na Villar, vested interest lamang agenda at sa hinagap…heto halos 90% ng Pinoy e apektado ng kawalang direksyon ng rehimeng arroyo.

    Ang kailangan natin ay isang Makabayan at pumapabor sa Sambayanang Pinoy at di uto-uto kundi maka-Masa?

  17. Balweg Balweg

    Wow, i just learned that government election automation is a complete mess because in our area in Mindanao, it takes no effect….dagdag-bawas still existed?

    Bonz, wise si Melontopak…mas naging simple ang dealings nila upang maisulong muli ang high tech na dagdag-dami, instead na dagdag-bawas?

    Isang pirma lang tapos ang issue, unlike kung manuwal na bilangan…ang dami nilang gagawin runners upang maisulong ang dagdag-bawas, pero itong utomated machine isang pirma…tapos ang issue.

    Wala ng bedol con hello-garci, kundi Melontopak upang wasakin ang kredibilidad ng eleksyon sa 2010 upang magdeklara ng failure of election…so kabig uli sila?

    Kung walang ma-e-declare na Pangulo…so, care-taker gov’t. ang paiiralin at for sure si Puno ang acting nito? Kung si tandang Enrile naman still Senate President…automatically siya ang acting President?

  18. jocjoc jocjoc

    Naalala ninyo ba ang naging style ni alan Cayetano nuong na elect siyang senator? He accused FG of having german bank accounts with billions of deposits. FG threatened to sue him, but did not pursue it anyway, and that was the ruse. This could be happening again.

    Kunyari galit sila sa isat isa, pero drama lamang pala. Final na labas, sila sila rin pala.

  19. Valdemar Valdemar

    In the short history of the nation, we the people have refined the election tracks that cheating goes parallel to it. To divert it to the right thing is only the rule preempting any election but turns out its natural color, no loses only cheated.

  20. Gloria does not care about anyone but her and family’s and her party’s and master’s interest she even decided to put a dam in kaliwa river in tanay,rizal where a people speaking a dialect closely related to kapampangan live.

  21. Sa ilang comments ko in the past while the poll automation is still being deliberated in Congress, basta si glorya pa ang nakaupo, it’s not going to work well but only para sa gusto nyang ng papanalunin. Ang SMARTMATIC-TIM kung sakaling gumana dahil pa tayo sure kung it will be operational talaga sa araw ng eleksiyon dahil may duda akong they’re not yet ready without the pilot-testing, it will be programmed only to ensure the victory of pro-administration candidates. Yan ang paniwala ko.

  22. To declare “failure of election” has always been an option by GMA. Maraming option ang bruha. Hawak niya ang magagandang baraha.

  23. chi chi

    Basta nandyan si Gloria Arroyo, lahat ay bangungot. Manual o (smart)matic-matik elections ay pareho din.

  24. chi chi

    “As to the Curacao experience, Carpio asked Larraga if he knew the size of the Carribean country. The assistant Solgen said he didn’t know.”

    So the Solgen did not do his research. Para lang parang Baranggay election ang sa Curacao na sinlaki lang ng isang baryo sa Makati. E ang Pinas ay nearly as big as UK (correct me if I’m wrong, pls).

    Walang magandang lalabas basta ang pekeng admin ni Gloria Arroyo ang nagtatanggol.

    Ayaw ng pilot-test dahil magkakabukuhan e bayad na ang tongpats!

  25. chi chi

    “Larraga said Smartmatic election system was successful in the elections in Venezuela and Curacao. Justice Leonardo Quisumbing asked, “How do you define ’successful”? Because it favored the incumbent?””

    Is Leo back?!

  26. Tykmo Omkyt Tykmo Omkyt

    Dami namang eche bureche. Automated man o hindi may anomalya pa rin…Mabilis lang ang resulta pag automated.

    Kita kita na lang sa finals…

  27. Hindi ba ang computer “garbage in, garbage out”? So, Malacanang can also cheat through automated.

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