Aquino lead over Villar down to 7% in latest SWS poll
Highlights of SWS survey conducted last Jan. 21 -24 commissioned by Businessworld:
Liberal Party standard-bearer Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III remains the top pick among the 10 presidential aspirants green-lighted by the Commission on Elections (Comelec) but the Nationalista Party’s (NP) Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar appears to be fast catching up.
With the campaign period yet to officially start, a new BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey found 42% of respondents saying they would vote for Mr. Aquino, four points down from the 46% who said so in an early December poll that was also commissioned by this newspaper.
Over the period Mr. Villar, Mr. Aquino’s top challenger, picked up eight points to secure the nod of 35%, up from 27%.
Mr. Aquino — who has led the voter preference surveys since his
surprise bid for the presidency last year — saw his lead cut by a significant margin. From nineteen points in the Dec. 5-10 BW-SWS poll, he is now ahead of Mr. Villar by just seven.
The narrowing gap was also recorded in a Dec.27-28 SWS poll commissioned by a legislator (See table).
Still in third, meanwhile, was former President Joseph Ejercito Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, who lost three points to 13% from 16% previously.
The Jan. 21-24 SWS survey asked 2,100 adults nationwide the question: “Sa mga sumusunod na pangalan sa listahang ito, sino po ang malamang ninyong iboboto bilang Presidente ng Pilipinas, kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon? (Among the names found on this list, who will you probably vote for as President of the Philippines if the elections were held today?) The error margin used was ±2%.
The list of 10 brought back independent candidate Jesus Nicanor “Nick” P. Perlas, included Vetellano “Dodong” S. Acosta of the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan, and removed the names of independents Oliver Lozano and Mariano Crespo.
Still in fourth, meanwhile, was the administration’s bet, former Defense Secretary Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro, Jr. of the Lakas-Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino-Christian Muslim Democrats (Lakas-Kampi-CMD). His score dipped to 4% from 5% in December.
Fifth place, with 2% from 1% in the previous survey, went to Bro. Eduardo “Eddie” C. Villanueva of the Jesus is Lord movement who is running under the Bangon Pilipinas Movement.
Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon of the Bagumbayan-New Volunteers for a Philippines party picked up a few more voters to score 2%, up from 0.9%, while independent candidate Sen. Ana Consuelo “Jamby” A.S. Madrigal’s support was at 0.4% from 0.2%.
Mr. Acosta, who was not included in the previous survey, got 0.3%; John Carlos “JC” G. de los Reyes of the Ang Kapatiran Party saw his score hit 0.2% from 0.1%, while Mr. Perlas improved to 0.1% from 0.03%.
Mr. Aquino declined to answer phone calls, saying instead in a text message that he would “reserve comment until we have had a chance to study it (the survey results).” “We are getting conflicting numbers, hence my hesitancy in responding.”
Speaking on behalf of Mr. Villar, former Cavite representative and now NP spokesman Gilbert C. Remulla said: “It was no wonder why Sen. Villar’s detractors revived the C-5 issue, throwing those baseless accusations against him knowing fully well it was survey period.”
Mr. Remulla was referring to an ongoing Senate inquiry regarding alleged ethical misconduct by Mr. Villar over funding for a national road project.
“Forecasts … are proving to be correct that there is upward trend for Sen. Villar and downward trend for Sen. Aquino. It gives us further confidence that we will achieve statistical parity by next month. We expect the trend to continue,” he said.
Mr. Estrada’s spokesperson Margaux M. Salcedo, meanwhile, said in a telephone interview: “[The two-point decline] is still within the margin of error. At least his rating is steady.”
She also said the Comelec’s recent decision to allow Mr. Estrada to run amid electoral protests would “take time to sink in.”
“Expectedly, it will take a while for news to get around,” she said.
Mr. Teodoro and the other presidential candidates were not immediately available for comment.
Filipinos will troop to the polls on May 10 to pick Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s successor. – Gerard S. dela Peña
Senator Manuel “Mar” A. Roxas appears to have picked up momentum as the leading contender for the country’s second-highest elective post.
A Social Weather Stations (SWS) poll commissioned by BusinessWorld found the Liberal Party bet the top choice for vice-president from the official Commission on Elections list of eight contenders, with a score of 49%. This was up six points from the 43% notched in an early December survey also commissioned by this newspaper.
In second with a four-point drop was the Nacionalista Party’s Sen. Loren B. Legarda who was the pick of 28%.
Third place went to Makati Mayor Jejomar “Jojo” Binay of the Partido Demokratikong Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan, who gained six points to 16%.
Asked to comment, Mr. Roxas said “people perhaps thought things over last Christmas. Mahirap magsalita (It is hard to make assumptions).”
Ms. Legarda was not immediately available for comment.
But Mr. Roxas claimed a big factor was his tandem with presidential hopeful Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” Aquino III: “Siguro nakikita nila na tunay ang pagiging tandem namin at hindi lang ito shotgun marriage (Perhaps the respondents saw us as a true tandem, not a shotgun marriage).”
Mr. Roxas last year dropped long-held ambitions for the presidency in favor of Mr. Aquino, who was pushed to the forefront following the death of his mother, former President Corazon C. Aquno. Mr. Aquino, however, has since seen a once formidable lead slip to just seven points versus Ms. Legarda’s running mate, Sen. Manuel B. Villar, Jr.
Mr. Binay’s media officer Joey Salgado, meanwhile, welcomed his candidate’s gain.
“We’re happy. Mayor Binay started at zero compared to other candidates who are already known personalities. The campaign has not started yet and we’re already getting support,” he claimed.
The BW-SWS Pre-election Survey, conducted last Jan. 21-24, asked 2,100 adults: “Sa mga sumusunod na pangalan sa listahang ito, sino po ang malamang ninyong iboboto bilang Bise-Presidente ng Pilipinas, kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon? (Among the names found on this list, who will you probably vote for as vice-president of the Philippines if the elections were held today?)
Percentages for the remaining vice-presidential candidates did not change significantly from the December survey.
Tied at fourth and fifth with 2% each were Metro Manila Development Authority chairman Bayani “BF” F. Fernando and actor and former Optical Media Board chief Eduardo “Edu” B. Manzano.Mr. Manzano, the administration bet, got 3% the last time.
Former Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Perfecto R. Yasay of Bangon Pilipinas edged up to 0.4% from 0.1%. while TV news anchor Jose “Jay” Y. Sonza (Kilusang Bagong Lipunan) stayed at 0.3%.
From zero in the last survey, Dominador “Jun” F. Chipeco, Jr. of the Ang Kapatiran Party picked up to 0.2%. — Ira P. Pedrasa.
Revilla takes top spot in Senate race
An administration ally and two opposition bets are currently the voters’ top picks among an extensive list of aspirants vying for Senate seats in the upcoming May 10 elections.
A Jan. 21-24 Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey done for BusinessWorld, the results of which were released before the offical campaign period starts next week, put re-electionist Ramon B. Revilla Jr. of the administration party Lakas-Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino-Christian Muslim Democrats (Lakas-Kampi-CMD) on top with the support of 58% of the respondents.
Following close behind were Pilar Juliana “Pia” S. Cayetano of the Nacionalista Party (NP) and Jose “Jinggoy” E. Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP). Both got a 57% rating.
People’s Reform Party bet Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago, who came first in the previous BW-SWS Pre-election Survey last Dec. 5-10, slipped to third with five-point drop to 50%.
Comprising the lineup of those likely to win Senate seats, the SWS said, are:
• former Senate president Franklin M. Drilon (Liberal Party or LP), 47%;
• Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile ( PMP), 42%;
• former senator Vicente “Tito” C. Sotto III (Nationalist People’s Coalition), 41%
• former senator Ralph G. Recto (LP), 40%;
• Ilocos Norte Rep. Ferdinand “Bongbong” R. Marcos, Jr. (Kilusang Bagong Lipunan), 39%;
• former senator Sergio “Serge” D. Osmena III (independent), 38%;
• Bukidnon Rep. Teofisto “TG” L. Guingona III (LP), 31%;
• businessman Jose P. De Venecia III, son of former House Speaker Jose C. De Venecia, Jr. (PMP), 30%;
• and Senator Manuel “Lito” M. Lapid (Lakas-Kampi-CMD), 28%.
With statistical chances of making it were Gwendolyn C. Pimentel-Gana (Partido Demokratikong Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan), the daughter of Senate Minority Leader Aquilino Q. Pimentel, Jr. who scored 23%.
Just outside the bounds, said the SWS, was Muntinlupa City Rep. Rozzano Rufino B. Biazon (LP) with 21%.
The SWS asked 2,100 adults to choose up to 12 names from a list of 62 candidates that was pre-approved by BusinessWorld.
Sought for comment, Ms. Cayetano said: “It’s always encouraging when one’s work is recognized by the people. The campaign period will start soon and I will continue to make known the kind of work I’ve done.”
Mr. Drilon, for his part, said: “The fourth position and the 47% rating is good. We have not yet started the campaign period and there’s a lot more room for improvement.”
For his part, Mr. Enrile, who got an increase from last December’s 37%, said: “I am grateful that I have increased my acceptability to the people but we do not know yet how things will develop during the election day. I will keep on working to serve the people.”
The other candidates were not immediately available for comment.– J. F. S. Valdez