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Reality check in the Spratlys

PH-occupied Pag-asa island in Kalayaan Island Group
Heaven forbid, but in case there’s a shooting war in the disputed islands of the Spratlys, don’t expect the United States military to come to the aid of the Philippines, South China Sea experts said.

I asked the question if the United States military would enter the picture in case of an armed conflict in the South China Sea in the light of the excitement of some Philippine officials and media over the statement of U.S. State Secretary Hillary and U.S. Ambassador Harry Thomas about continuing to work with the Philippines on all issues including related to the South China Sea conflict and stands by the Philippine “by our commitment under the Mutual Defense Treaty.”

This was at the two-day Manila Conference on the South China Sea jointly organized by the Foreign Service Institute of the Philippines, National Defense College of the Philippines, and the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam held at the Dusit Thani Hotel in Makati last week.

Retired General Vinod Saighal of the Indian Army, who is now executive director of the Eco Monitors Society, a non-governmental organization concerned with demography and ecology, said, “Forget the U.S. It will not happen. They are going to sleep.”

Saighal said the U.S. has its hands full with Afghanistan and Libya.

Mark J. Valencia, a fellow at the National Asia Research program, National Bureau of Asia Research and Woodrow Wilson Center (U.S.A) said the U.S. may share intelligence information but he ruled out their sending the U.S. Marines.

Renato de Castro of the De la Salle University recalled the words of former Commander-in-chief of the Pacific Command Charles Larson after the 1991 Philippine Senate decision to terminate the PH-US Military Bases agreement who asked why the Philippines would expect the US to honor their commitment under the MDT after depriving them of their forward base.

But De Castro said the U.S. won’t stand idly in case of hostilities in the South China Sea where a third of the world’s maritime trade pass. “They will not allow the sea lanes of communication to be blocked,” he said.

In his paper presented during the conference,Dato Vice Admiral Noor Aziz Bin Yunan,Difense Konsult PLC, Malaysia cited three reasons for the strategic importance of the SCS: critical trade route,oil reserves and fishery resources, and geo-political strategy.

“Much of the trade between Europe and the Middle East passes from the Indian Ocean through the Malacca Strait,then up through the South China Sea, South Korea, and Japan. Japanese and South Korea defense planners in particular do now want this trade route dominated by China. Japan has shown strong interest for guaranteeing the freedom of trade. This is due to the fact that Japan’s trade and an overwhelming part of the oil Japan imports is transported through the South China Sea. It is in Japan’s interest that not one party gets strong enough to control the trade throughout the region,” he said.

Yunan recalled that on Dec. 24, 1989, China revealed that the Spratlys contained 25 billion cubic meters natural gas, 105 billion barrels of oil, and 370,000 ton of phosphor.

He said the strategic location of the SCS as an important sea-line-of communications adjacent to choke points of Malacca and Singapore Straits is becoming a zone of competition between China and the United States and the Spratly area has military, economic, and strategic importance for all the parties in the conflict. Paracel and the Gulf of Tonkin have the same strategic importance for Vietnam and China.

“Should one party gain exclusive control over the area, that state would gain total control over the economic development and the trade routes in the region,” Yunan said.

He also said China is seeking naval preponderance in the South China Sea as part of its bid to become a global naval power.

In the meeting of Clinton with Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario in Washington D.C. last month, the former expressed concern over renewed tension in the SCS. “These reported incidents clearly present significant maritime security issues, including the freedom of navigation, respect for international law, and the lawful, unimpeded economic development and commerce that all nations are entitled to pursue.”

She reiterated U.S. policy: “Our position on the South China Sea has been consistent and clear. We support a collaborative diplomatic process by all claimants to resolve their disputes without the use or threat of force.”

Clinton also made clear the U.S. position on the conflicting claims of the Philippines, China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan: “And as I’ve said, we don’t, as the United States, take a position on competing sovereignty claims over land features. And as the secretary said, there is customary international law; there is the law of the seas. What is theirs is theirs and then what is disputed should be resolved peacefully. However, if there are claimants to land or sea features, then they should respect the international law and do everything we can to try to resolve these disputes because, ultimately, territorial disputes have to be resolved by the claimants. But the United States is prepared to support the initiatives led by ASEAN and work with the South China Sea’s claimants to meet their concerns.”

Col. Galileo Gerard Kintanar, Jr. of the Philippine Air Force asked about a worst-case scenario in the SCS. Peter A. Dutton, Associate Professor, China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College, Hasjim Djalal of the Indonesian Maritime Council and Carolina Hernandez of the Institute for Strategic and Development Studies, Philippines ruled out an all-out-war.

But Dutton and Hernandez warned of “unintended flare-ups”.

“Small incidents that get out of control,” Dutton said.

Dutton said there is no “shortage of good aspirations” to find solutions to make SCS a zone of peace, freedom and cooperation.

However, he said, “There appears to be a shortage of political will to find compromise and all sides are using naval power to send signals of resolve.”

He added:“If parties are to stave off conflict, the answer lies not in the win-lose propositions of sovereignty and jurisdiction, but in finding answers in some of the examples of win-win frameworks that would regionalize the territory and waters of the South China Sea, allow common development of the living and non-living resources, and provide for shared enforcement of laws.”

The alternative, Dutton said, “is as it ever has been – that the strong will do what they can and the weak will do what they must.”

Published inForeign AffairsMaritime AffairsMilitary

24 Comments

  1. Becky Becky

    I also believe that all the claimants will try to avoid armed confrontation in the Spratlys.Every one will be in a defensive posture which is good.

    The best way to manage the problem in the Spratlys is through diplomacy. The Philippines should be firm with its position as to these islands.

  2. edfaji edfaji

    Sorry to disagree with you Ellen but who are these guys Vinod Saighal, Mark Valencia and Renato de Castro? Do they have the authority to make a statement for Filipinos to believe? What they know is probably what they read on papers just like all of ordinary Pinoy know about. I doubt very much if shooting war will ever break in the Spratlys. The media is creating an issue of nothing.

  3. chi chi

    I believe this conflict will go on and on ….. until thy kingdom come. If this will ever be resolved, it will take a strong political will and determination on our leadership, we need the best diplomat for China to even consider hearing our stand.

  4. There is one and only way to beat the bullying leaders of the Communist Party of Mainland China. The key is the revival memories of the Tiananmen Square Massacre in Jun3, 1989!

    It is the toppling down by the Chinese people of their bullying Communist Leaders !

  5. i can only pray for best possible scenarios. i don’t know the chinese (mainland) that well and i only have biases because of what i read mostly and opinions of others. surprisingly as i interact more with my chinese colleagues they seem to be normal people, well, a bit more motivated and more passionate in their work than we are but i can actually say i van live with them. maybe its the corporate culture that makes us kindred spirits, maybe the chinese government staff and military are different?
    are we willing to let down old cultural and ideological biases and get to know this big neighbor of ours better (a question i ask myself more and more these days).
    i may have to entertain some company bigshots from our office in the mainland here in manila for one day though, the rest of the week in boracay, no politics, just business.
    maybe not all chinese are bullies? who knows, maybe there’s truth to the saying “if you really knew me, you’d even like me.”

  6. Please watch “Amigo” tangkilikin ang sariling atin!

  7. Edfaji, please read the article carefully.

    You said,”I doubt very much if shooting war will ever break in the Spratlys”

    That what the experts in the conference were also saying.Saighal, Valencia, and De Castro were merely answering my question if they believe the US will come in in case (pay attention to this qualifier in my question) of hostilities in the SCS.

    Please read the article in full. In the later part of the article you will find this paragraph:”Col. Galileo Gerard Kintanar, Jr. of the Philippine Air Force asked about a worst-case scenario in the SCS. Peter A. Dutton, Associate Professor, China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College, Hasjim Djalal of the Indonesian Maritime Council and Carolina Hernandez of the Institute for Strategic and Development Studies, Philippines ruled out an all-out-war.

    Isn’t this what you are also saying?

  8. Edfaji, I agree with you that the quality of coverage on the SCS by the Philippine media is wanting in quality.

    That’s why I found last week’s conference very useful. I wished there were more media people who attended not necessarily for the day’s news but for their own education.

    That’s the very reason that I wrote this article – to put things in the proper perspective.

    I reiterate my request for you to read the whole article carefully.

  9. Edfaji,
    I agree with Ellen, read the article carefully and with an open mind – she didn’t even inject any personal opinion, just presented what she gathered from the conference, “what is there to disagree with?”
    We need to know more about this issue(s) like it or not, most of us are still in the dark about foreign relations, buti nga may nagtiyaga pang mag share ng mga to for free pa.
    Thanks Ellen!

  10. Becky Becky

    The DFA released a statement on the visit of Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario to China. It said “Both Ministers exchanged views on the maritime disputes and agreed not to let the maritime disputes affect the broader picture of friendship and cooperation between the two countries. The two sides reaffirmed their commitments to respect and abide by the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea signed by China and the ASEAN member countries in 2002.”

    http://dfa.gov.ph/main/index.php/newsroom/dfa-releases/3390-philippines-china-joint-press-statement

  11. parasabayan parasabayan

    I agree with Datton. Dahil sa maraming bansa ang nagkiclaim sa Spratleys, bakit hindi na lang magusap usap ang mga ito para idevelop at protektahan ang resources nito para sa common good ng mga bansang may interest dito instead of each claiming this as “their own” only. Walang mangyayari dyan kung ang mga bansang gustong masolo ito ay magaway away na lang palagi. If there are 6 countries claiming the Spratly’s to be theirs, then there should be a collective effort to develop this area. Equity sharing na lang. Yung walang pera to develop eh makuntento na lang na kukuha ng mas maliit na share kesa sa wawaldasin lang nila ang oportunidad na magkaroon ng kahit na kaunting pakinabang sa resources nito. Everything has to be on paper though and there should be a check and balance on its activities, May kanya kanyang representative ang mga bansa para hindi mag-uutakan. Progress reports should be shared with everyone.

    Ang mahirap kasi, gusto ng Pilipinas na maangkin and Spratlys but will the Philippines have the capability to maximize the benefits from it? Baka ang mangyari niyan ay gagatasan na naman yan ng mga politikong gustong mag-kapera like the putot who ran the country like it was hers. Ginagatasan ang mga ahensiya na parang bulsa niya. Pwede ring parentahan na lang ito sa mga dayuhan but this is the last option I would like. I will go with the collective exploration of the area for the common good of all the countries. Ingat lang dahil matitinik ang mga Instsik. Baka maisahan na naman tayo dyan!

  12. parasabayan parasabayan

    This is an issue that has to be resolved NOW na. If China becomes even more powerful later (financially now it is already flexing its muscles), lalong ibubully tayo niyan. If this diplomacy talk is just to prolong the agony, it will not serve any purpose. We need to start developing this area now coz if there is indeed prospects of oil here, this is one thing that will benefit all these countries staking their ownership.

    Labas na sa usapan talaga ang US unless the US wants to be our investor which is what I can sense they want. US wants to have her fingers on everything the Philippines does na pinababayaan naman natin all these years kasi beholden tayo sa kanila dahil sa mga DOLE OUTS na paliit ng paliit. Even the Veterans who fought alongside them did not get the promised monetary compensation. Namantay na ang karamihan sa kanila bago nakuha yung katiting na pera. Wake up Philippines! Kumayod ka ng sarili mo and make your own decisions hindi na lang palaging nagaantay sa basbas ni Uncle Sam.

  13. parasabayan parasabayan

    Baka nga may niluluto na ang US at China dyan na hindi tayo kasali. GISING PILIPINAS!

  14. kapatid kapatid

    Expect the worse case scenario, but be open and hope for a calm resolution. Joint explorations and developments and eventual harvest of resources must be shared amongst claimants. But, those clearly within the 200-Nautical Mile Exclusive Economic Zone must not be included in those joint explorations. What is ours is ours. That is Non Negotiable.

    The JMSU of Gloria is the culprit. She allowed China and Vietnam to take a peek into what is there to gain well within our territory. I think she agreed to this because the Chinese required collateral for stat-loans that she is getting from them.

    On US Assistance : The US has great interest on this. Navigation, Commerce etc… But most of all, if they do not come to help the Philippines, and foregoing that MDT, they would lose their credibility.

    I would hope that the Philippine Government and our military would take this opportunity to rebuild our force capability. Hoping for the government to realize that a strong military could be a deterrent to agressive stance by our neighbors.

    China will not force this issue for now, but surely they are testing the waters already, something they learned from Gloria perhaps. china is aware that the Philippines is quite slow in prevention of situations, and quite late in reaction to states of play.

    If I am not mistaken, the Chinese became more agressive when the US bases in the Philippines closed. I firmly believe, in order to protect our interest and sovereignty on the disputed islands, we need to reconsider re-opening the possibility of bases for the US Forces here. Truth be told, we are incapable of defending ourselves against any foreign
    invasion. US bases for now,until our military has regained some decency in our arsenal and capabilities. BCDA funds/proceeds, Military budgets should be used to augment our military hardware, not the hardware of Garcia et.al. Godpeed to us all.

  15. Do we have any material about the Chinese? What makes them tick, political structure, economic policies, economic structure, culture (any changes), etc, etc? Who are we dealing with really?

  16. ——————————–
    Going by current analysis, what seems to be emerging in China in its unique transition to modernity is a social order that can no longer realistically be represented by a center. Instead of one voice, we hear many — all passing themselves off as the authentic voice of the Chinese people. In the face of this, the challenge for those who must deal with China is to know when and how to respond to various types of offers and provocations with equanimity. This requires an abiding awareness that while China still calls itself a socialist state, one is not dealing here with a monolithic actor, but rather with a complex assemblage of public and private interest groups all claiming state imprimatur. It would be foolish to demand in such instances for the real China to stand up. For, the “real China” continues to be in the making as a new generation of party men, entrepreneurs, and intellectuals prepare to take over.

    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/news/futures/Philippine_Daily_Inquirer__Manila__Randy_David_column_160954985.html

  17. Do You Know? The average monthly income of China armed force officers: 5373.14 yuan RMB (around US$826) based on the exchange rate in May 2011. (source: PLA Daily May 19, 2011)

    Air Force (470,000 airmen; 2,556 jet fighters; 400 ground attack jets.)

    Total Army Members: 2.3 million (2009)

    Ground Force (Army) (1.9 million men; 14,000 tanks; 14,500 artillery pieces & 453 helicopters)

    Navy (250,000 sailors; 63 submarines; 18 destroyers; 35 frigates)

    Second Artillery Force (Stragetic Missile Force)

    Budget of National Defense in 2010: 532.1 billion yuan RMB (about US$70.8 billion)

    http://www.chinatoday.com/arm/

  18. walang sinabi sa mga generals natin. 🙂

  19. They have the same problems so it seems.

    ——————————————–
    Disturbing death of land rights campaigner sparks online fury

    Chinese dissidents condemn ‘forced disappearances’

    Graduates entitled to pitiful salaries

    Unreliable textbooks preserve status quo

    Chinese economic model breeds corruption

    high ranking Chinese officials have over 5,000 Swiss bank accounts. Two-thirds of them belong to central government officials, including all Standing Committee members, Politburo members, and Standing Committee Members of the Politburo, every one of them has an account.”

    http://insidechinatoday.net/

  20. Jake Las Pinas Jake Las Pinas

    US wont rescue its former colony? Thats good news! maybe its about time we stand on our own. Then we can purchase any weapons without asking permission.

  21. martinsampaga martinsampaga

    they have no reason to intervene anyways– thats a disputed area claimed by many neighboring countries…the US will only rushed to the scene if one of those countries that are claiming ownership of the area(including PHL), gets strategically attacked for strong purpose of Obliteration or Invasion by China..If ONLY a naval skirmishes breaks out to that disputed area,so many countries that are claimants,it is not covered by the MDT–therefore, there is no strong rationale for Uncle sam to participate on that fight.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43701163/ns/world_news-asia_pacific/

  22. parasabayan parasabayan

    My Singaporean American doctor friend travelled to China before the olympics and she said not to travel to China as of yet then coz there were some cities of China that were still very dirty and without any decent hotels and restaurants.

    Another Chinese American, very young friend who was given a trip to China, as gift from her Chinese parents after her graduation said she wanted to go back to the US immediately after she reached her parents’ home town in one of the big provinces of China. There was no potable water. Water was “tabo tabo” system. The livestock and animals lived with the folks in their homes. Still very rural. So China still has a long way to go in the development of her infrastructures etc.

  23. martinsampaga martinsampaga

    #22 PSB.

    Your friends just said it…. Politicaly, lamang sila dahil nga communists-what the decision from above must be followed by everyone bellow! Or else….. diba? we all know what is going to happen to anyone who gets so critical towards the people’s republic policies…. Economically? hmmmmm… they are the biggest holder of US debts,manipulating their currency(yuan) below other major foreign currencies,the russians even complained that China is violating russia’s intellectual property rights on their military hardwares; now, that makes me still doubtfull if they can keep their trading steam without private investments coming from all over the world, most i.e USA.

  24. parasabayan,
    There are areas in the provinces in China that are still lagging behind but if you look at the major cities, expecially the “important” ones that are directly supervised by the government you’ll see opulence and modernity you’ll be surprised.
    There is massive industrialization in Shandong, I loved the airport in Chongqing (and hotel), Chingdao was very nice and clean, Guangzhou was also quite modern. The “locks” for shipping in the Yangtze were extraordinary, I especially liked the hydroelectric dam (also massive). I don’t think the Philippines can compare to its massive and modern infrastructures. The business climate is also something to be envious about.
    Like I said, we need to get to know China more, know what or who we are dealing with (SunTzu). What are their policies regarding “loans” also? Compare that with IMF, WB, and even the supposed “aid” we get from the US, are they also that usurious?
    I admit I am biased towards the US, like everyone else I’m comfortable with the Americans but we cannot escape the fact that we need to look into improving relationships in the region also.

    http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:-UCC3PsmbAoJ:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_China+important+cities+in+china&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ph&source=www.google.com.ph

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