At last, Interior Secretary Mar Roxas numbers moved up.
In a survey conducted by Pulse Asia, Roxas numbers almost doubled in a matter of two months. From seven percent last week of June, it jumped to 13 percent second week of September.
What could be the factors that contributed to respondents finally discovering Roxas after years of ignoring him when asked who they would vote if elections were held at the time the survey was conducted?
A quick scan of media headlines yielded only two issues where Roxas was featured in a prominent role: the announcement of the identification of police officers involved in the brazen EDSA daytime hulidap and his suggestion that President Aquino extends his stay in Malacañang beyond 2016.
Could that have gained for him enormous credit worth six percentage points jump in ratings?
It should be noted that on several occasions when President Aquino stressed the importance that his successor would be the one that would continue his “tuwid na daan” policy Roxas was beside him. Could Aquino’s popularity have rubbed off on him? But then Aquino’s satisfaction rating has been on the decline these past months.
It’s possible that the increase of Roxas’s numbers was due to the demolition of Binay.
Since they were adversaries in the 2010 vice presidential elections and are expected to again be against each other in the 2016 presidential elections, Roxas is being presented as the opposite of Binay. The scenario being painted is frontrunner Binay is corrupt and Roxas is Mr. Clean.
Binay, as the survey showed, was clearly hurt by the expose on the alleged overpriced Makati City Hall Building 2 and other stories about institutionalized corruption when he was mayor and being continued by his son, Junjun.
A ten percentage point decline in Binay’s rating – from 41 percent last June down to 31 percent second week of September- is a huge drop. Binay should be worried considering that his opponents have said they are not through with him yet.
But I find the survey numbers puzzling.
Why did the rating of Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano, who, together with Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, led the attack on Binay, also drop? From five per cent last June, Cayetano’s rating dipped to one.
Puzzling also is the decline in Sen. Grace Poe’s rating from 12 percent to 10 percent.Yet, the rating of former President Joseph Estrada increased by one percentage point -from nine to 10.
It’s still one year and eight months to the May 2016 elections. There are a lot of factors that will come into play.
But what is becoming clear is that the strategy of pulling down Binay to “level the playing field” is working in Roxas’s favor.
May problema sa Pulse Asia, mukhang ang findings nila defies Logic 101.
Kahit tumaas-bumaba ang ratings ni Binay at Roxas, ayaw ko sa kanila wala silang flavor.
“Why did the rating of Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano, who, together with Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, led the attack on Binay, also drop? From five per cent last June, Cayetano’s rating dipped to one.”
maybe pinoys dont like people who attack other people? tahimik lang si roxas, kaya siya yung nagbenefit.
“Puzzling also is the decline in Sen. Grace Poe’s rating from 12 percent to 10 percent.Yet, the rating of former President Joseph Estrada increased by one percentage point -from nine to 10.”
basically unchanged.
The dominant factor is the Binay parking garage scandal, and voters had to run somewhere, so a good many went to Roxas. Politicians will be put into the same predicament. A lot of representatives were getting ready to jump from LP to UNA for personal advantage and are now rethinking.
Surveys are mostly the reflection of the given samples at a given time based on the prevailing events and will change in a Jiffy…If the Binays Scandal is pursued (and is seldom done) then he is done and finished but if not he will be just the Estradas,the Marcosses and soon the Arroyos that will be on Top once again…that is the saddest part of the Phl Politics…Alleged Criminals governing while the goodies are being lambasted left and right and just do not get the support but left on their own…and many will ask…why are we are being left behind?
The drop in the survey ratings of Cayetano and Trillanes could be attributed to the fact that Roxas has more chances of beating Binay. People who changed their preference turned to Roxas.
daghan ang datong ni Binay. kayang-kaya niyang tapatan ang SWS & Pulse Asia. Kaya hindi dapat paniwalaan ang survey. you will ask only one thousand people against sa millions of voters. yet ang mga tatanungin mo ay mga nasa bingguhan & tong its. WOW NAMAN,,,,,,,,,,
Vic is right. Surveys are conducted at a particular time period vis a vis the interrelated events that happened during same period of time. I may say that surveys are part of the “Perception War” that is present not only in politics.
For example, the September 8-15, 2014 “Ulat Ng Bayan” (meaning it was funded from Pulse Asia’s own pocket) on presidentiables only ‘halfway’ reflected the September 11 Mercado revelation of “13% Binay kickback”. The drop in Binay’s rating was significant but not that high in terms of providing votes to the next viable presidentiable, Roxas. The rise in Roxas’s rating was, I believe, a result of PNoy’s ‘proxy’ role in the “Daang Matuwid” mantra. However, it was not enough because more names of presidentiables were given out by respondents or the Binay points were spread elsewhere (comparing the
The survey also wasn’t able to reflect the September 18 Binay PICC speech.
On the findings, the subcommittee hearings on the alleged overpricing in the “Makati City Hall Parking Building” (a term written on Makati City ordinances)
Oops…wrong press…
Take 2…
Vic is right. Surveys are conducted at a particular time period vis a vis the interrelated events that happened during same period of time. I may say that surveys are part of the “Perception War” that is present not only in politics.
For example, the September 8-15, 2014 “Ulat Ng Bayan” (meaning it was funded from Pulse Asia’s own pocket) on presidentiables only ‘halfway’ reflected the September 11 Mercado revelation of “13% Binay kickback”. The drop in Binay’s rating was significant but not that high in terms of providing votes to the next viable presidentiable, Roxas. The rise in Roxas’s rating was, I believe, a result of PNoy’s ‘proxy’ role in the “Daang Matuwid” mantra. However, it was not enough because more names of presidentiables were given out by respondents or the Binay points were spread elsewhere (comparing results from the September survey with the July data).
The survey wasn’t able also to reflect the September 18 Binay PICC speech. Will the same level of drop in the frontrunner’s rating be the result if, let’s say, the survey was done last week? Will the same level of rise in the next viable presidentiable be the result too?
Surveys help those who have ambition and those who support this ambition to make necessary adjustments in their respective campaign trails.
Pulse Asia and
SWS are often discredited…but at least their methodologies are scientifically done based on tried-and-tested statistical tools and sound analyses.
Certainly, Roxas’s propagandist ‘Paul Jograd’ will look at findings of reputable survey firms…like PA and SWS…aside from their own or commissioned surveys to validate the findings. Their own surveys are, more often than not, secret (unless leaked).
‘Jojo Legend’s’ September 18, 2015 “All of Me” speech was in answer to the Pulse Asia’s September 8-15, 2014 “Ulat Ng Bayan.” Politicos have a way in getting initial findings way ahead of the media release but I doubt if Anna Marie and Mahar will ‘cook’ their survey methodologies.
Unfortunately, the latest “Ulat Ng Bayan” won’t reflect the outcome of Binay’s September 18 “panliligaw to the max” so the perception of positivity or negativity remains.
I wouldn’t like to quote her but, really, “the beauty (of surveys) is in the eyes of the beholder…”
I am not joyful, to say it categorically, because my analysis is that Roxas only has a “squeak of a bounce” despite PNoy* proxying for him. (Roxas must not campaign early on because he will need to resign as soon as he starts campaigning.)
The latest “Ulat Ng Bayan” doesn’t reflect ‘Jojo Legend’s’ “All of Me” speech at the PICC. His “loud thud of a fall” during the September 8-15, 2014 survey may have bounced back higher at this point in time. (The “Robin Hoodism” works wonders in the Philippines because most voters find it positive just as long as they gain from it. I find it unfortunate that this is the case because Robin Hoods are just the same as Robin Hoodlums.)
The perception war has been going on since time immemorial.
The challenge is on the OMB, COA, and hopefully, BIR to undo the campaign trail of Binay because…
Binay believes that election campaign “starts soon after an Election Day.” He enjoys much of a headstart with ‘PDAF’ to boot…care of the LP and allied coalition in 2010. ‘Paul Jograd’ must work a miracle…probably…for Roxas…
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*PNoy is saddled by the PDAF-DAP debacle. His ratings must also go up for a sure-fire miraculous anointment of Roxas in order to dislodge the Binay juggernaut.
As to Cayetano’s fall…
“Pot calling the kettle black” is understandably negative to the electorate.
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Another point…
Binay’s fan base remains with him while a lot from Roxas deserted him.
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Expect more trial balloons in the events to come leading to 2016 Election Day.
‘Happy’ days, weeks, months, years to come…but I will be sad when Binay wins.
Nonetheless…
It’s more fun to survey in the Philippines.
– See more at: http://www.ellentordesillas.com/2014/09/21/disqualify-binay-to-level-playing-field-for-2016/#comment-880552
Election is still a long way to go and there will few more surveys to go… Saturday, 4rth of October our Party, the Sitting Govt will meet to report on our Fund Raising campaign as the Party is waiting for a favourable Surveys and may launch an Election call.. The beauty of very Short Campaign is the Surveys results do not go Stale to the polling Days (maximum days of campaign after the writ of election is handed down is 45 days and can go as short as 30 days since the Voters list is Permanent and can be all notified within 3 weeks)
Pls note that Fund Raising is not only during election but an Ongoing process. Refunds and rebates for Donations are issued on a yearly basis and limits and party expense and individual donation are calculated as per yearly limits. All equal maximum Limits contributions including Candidates. Candidate can contribute only $1000 for his campaign and must solicit donation from party supporters for the same maximum. Govt will refund $650..that is the beauty of a very level playing field.
The big wrecking ball against Binay is in full swing. It reminds me of Estrada. They threw all kinds of shit, nothing stuck. Estrada still became President. Who has all the logistics to do this? I dont think its the liberal party.